Syria’s Descent: From Democracy’s Promise to an Extremist Stronghold The fall of the Assad regime has profound implications, not only for Syria but also for regional and global security dynamics.
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DAMASCUS/NEW DELHI: The Syrian conflict is a multifaceted crisis that epitomizes the unintended consequences of interventionist policies and geopolitical rivalries. Over 13 years, what began as a call for democracy during the Arab Spring has devolved into a fractured nation dominated by extremism, with Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) solidifying its grip over northern Syria. The fall of the Assad regime has profound implications, not only for Syria but also for regional and global security dynamics.
The Arab Spring: Catalyst for Chaos (2011)
In March 2011, inspired by movements in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, Syrian protests sought reforms and an end to corruption. These aspirations quickly turned into civil war when Assad’s regime violently suppressed dissent. Western leaders, including President Barack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron, called for Assad’s removal, failing to grasp the entrenched sectarian divisions and complexities of Syrian opposition forces.
Statements like Obama’s—“The time has come for Assad to step aside”—set the stage for Western involvement, which was framed as support for democracy but neglected to account for Syria’s sociopolitical realities.
Western Missteps: Aiding the Rise of Extremism (2012–2014)
Western nations, particularly the U.S., provided arms and training to opposition groups through initiatives like Operation Timber Sycamore. These “moderate rebels” often lacked proper vetting, with factions such as the al-Nusra Front (later HTS) leveraging this support to strengthen their foothold.
As Vladimir Putin criticized, “By arming so-called moderate rebels, the West has fueled chaos.” The Western approach lacked coherence, creating unintended alliances and allowing extremist factions to flourish. Turkey, for instance, simultaneously supported opposition groups and aligned with entities connected to extremism, exacerbating the crisis.
Russia’s Intervention: The 2015 Turning Point
Russia’s entry into the conflict marked a critical shift. Its military campaign, under the guise of combating terrorism, largely targeted anti-Assad forces and bolstered the regime. This intervention further fractured opposition groups, driving many to ally with HTS.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry condemned Russia’s actions, but the West’s lack of a clear alternative enabled HTS to consolidate power in regions like Idlib. The conflict transformed into a proxy war, with Iran, Turkey, and Gulf states pursuing their competing interests.
The ISIS Threat and HTS Ascendancy (2014–2019)
While ISIS dominated headlines, its defeat in 2019 left a power vacuum in northern Syria. HTS, under Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, capitalized on this void. Rebranding itself as a “moderate” group compared to ISIS, HTS implemented localized governance under sharia law.
Jawlani’s strategic outreach to Western media furthered HTS’s attempt to legitimize its authority, but its extremist foundations remain unshaken.
2024: Assad’s Fall and HTS’s Power Consolidation
Years of economic collapse, military defeats, and internal dissent culminated in Assad’s regime’s downfall. HTS emerged as the dominant power, ruling northern Syria with a blend of authoritarian governance and extremist ideology. The United Nations has expressed grave concerns about this development, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning, “Extremist governance in Syria poses a dire threat to global security.”
Geopolitical Consequences: A Ripple Effect Across Regions
1. West Asia:
• Iran: Assad’s fall weakens Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” compelling it to intensify its influence in Iraq and Lebanon.
• Turkey: Faces complex challenges with HTS on its border, escalating security concerns over Kurdish militancy and refugee influx.
• Israel: Considers jihadist-controlled territories in Syria a direct security threat, increasing the risk of cross-border tensions.
• Terrorism Risks: HTS’s rise amplifies the threat of extremism spreading to South Asia, posing recruitment and radicalization challenges.
• Energy Security: West Asian instability could disrupt oil supplies, inflating energy prices and impacting India’s economy.
3. The Arab World:
• Gulf States: Initial support for anti-Assad forces has backfired, with HTS’s dominance undermining efforts to promote moderate governance.
• Refugee Crisis: Syria’s unending instability exacerbates migration pressures on Jordan and Lebanon, destabilizing host nations.
Lessons for the International Community
The Syrian tragedy serves as a cautionary tale of the perils of interventionism without strategic foresight. The West’s focus on regime change over stability allowed extremism to thrive, resulting in enduring consequences for the region and beyond.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres aptly summarized the crisis: “History will judge us not just by our actions but by our inactions in the face of crises like Syria.”
The collapse of Syria into extremist rule is a global challenge, demanding a collective reassessment of interventionist policies. Will the world learn from Syria’s missteps, or will history repeat itself elsewhere?
-Dr. Shahid Siddiqui; Follow via X @shahidsiddiqui
