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Trump’s Second Term: Redefining Global Power and India’s Strategic Rise

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Trump takes oath on the day of his presidential inauguration.

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WASHINGTON/ NEW DELHI: Donald J. Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marks a dramatic return to power for the 78-year-old Republican leader after a four-year political hiatus. This second term, characterized by his “America First” philosophy and a vision for a resurgent U.S. presidency, promises transformative shifts in global politics. Trump’s strong rhetoric on reversing prior policies and restoring U.S. dominance has set the stage for significant geopolitical realignments. Supported by Vice President JD Vance, whose populist and nationalist policies resonate with Trump’s agenda, this administration is expected to usher in sweeping changes that will reverberate across the globe.

For India, Trump’s comeback presents a complex interplay of opportunities and challenges in an evolving multipolar world. Positioned as a key U.S. partner in countering China and fostering regional stability, India must carefully navigate this dynamic landscape to secure its national and regional interests.

A New Era of Strategic Defense and Economic Opportunities

India’s partnership with the United States under Trump’s leadership is expected to deepen significantly, particularly in the realms of defense, technology, and regional security. Trump’s firm stance against China positions India as a critical ally in the Indo-Pacific region, where both nations share concerns over Beijing’s military and economic expansionism. Joint defense initiatives, including advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare capabilities, and space defense systems, will likely expand, enhancing India’s military readiness against potential threats from China and Pakistan.

Naval cooperation is poised to play a central role in this partnership. India’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean, coupled with its growing naval capabilities, aligns with U.S. efforts to counter China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea and broader Indo-Pacific. Recent advancements in India-U.S. military agreements, such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), provide a strong foundation for further collaboration. Strengthening the Quad coalition (India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia) will also serve as a critical platform to counterbalance China’s ambitions and ensure regional stability.

Economically, Trump’s emphasis on reducing U.S. dependence on China presents a significant opportunity for India to position itself as a global manufacturing hub. The Biden administration’s prior efforts to strengthen supply chains away from China align with India’s production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, which aim to boost domestic manufacturing in electronics, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. With targeted investments and policy reforms, India could attract U.S. companies seeking alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, thereby bolstering its economic growth and reducing reliance on imports.

India’s growing role in the Global South further enhances its geopolitical significance. As Trump’s transactional diplomacy focuses on pragmatic outcomes, India’s leadership in fostering development partnerships in Africa, South Asia, and other emerging markets could align with U.S. objectives. By expanding infrastructure projects and promoting economic stability in these regions, India can not only strengthen its global standing but also reinforce its position as a counterweight to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Challenges: Navigating Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Complexities

Donald Trump on Historic Inauguration as 47th US President.

Despite the promise of deeper ties, Trump’s “America First” policy could bring renewed trade tensions to the forefront. India may face challenges related to U.S. demands for greater market access in sectors like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce. Stricter regulations, higher tariffs, and disputes over intellectual property rights could complicate trade negotiations, requiring India to adopt a balanced yet assertive approach to protect its domestic industries while fostering bilateral trade.

Balancing relationships with the U.S., China, and Russia will test India’s diplomatic acumen. While Trump’s confrontational stance against China aligns with India’s regional interests, it risks complicating India’s longstanding ties with Russia, particularly in defense procurement. Russia remains a critical supplier of advanced weaponry to India, and any perceived tilt toward the U.S. could strain this strategic partnership. India must maintain its policy of strategic autonomy by diversifying defense imports and strengthening indigenous manufacturing under initiatives like “Make in India.”

Another potential challenge lies in Pakistan’s efforts to leverage Trump’s transactional diplomacy for concessions on Kashmir or economic aid. Historically, Trump has taken a pragmatic approach to international disputes, often prioritizing short-term gains over long-term strategy. Pakistan may attempt to exploit this to internationalize the Kashmir issue or secure financial assistance. India will need to counter these moves by emphasizing Pakistan’s continued support for terrorism and ensuring that its narrative of regional stability dominates global diplomatic forums.

Regional Dynamics: Countering China, Managing Pakistan, and Strengthening Bangladesh

China remains India’s primary strategic challenge, and Trump’s confrontational policies toward Beijing could provide both opportunities and risks. While the U.S.’s stance strengthens India’s position in the Indo-Pacific, it also increases the stakes in India-China relations. Tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh demand that India invest in border infrastructure and military preparedness to deter potential aggression. Additionally, India must continue engaging in multilateral frameworks like the Quad to solidify its role in countering China’s influence.

Pakistan’s potential attempts to realign its relationship with the U.S. will require vigilance. India must proactively address Pakistan’s narrative by highlighting its role in cross-border terrorism and reinforcing its commitment to counterterrorism initiatives with U.S. support. Enhancing intelligence-sharing mechanisms and leveraging platforms like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) can help India maintain international pressure on Pakistan.

Bangladesh, a growing economic powerhouse in South Asia, remains a key partner for India. Strengthening ties in trade, energy, and infrastructure development will ensure that India maintains its influence in the region. Trump’s focus on bilateral partnerships aligns with India’s approach to fostering regional growth and stability, particularly as Bangladesh’s strategic importance continues to rise.

Prime Minister Modi’s Leadership: Balancing Diplomacy and Strategy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s calibrated approach to Trump’s return reflects India’s strategic priorities. By delegating representation at Trump’s inauguration to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Modi demonstrated India’s commitment to high-level engagement while focusing on broader domestic and regional goals. Modi’s personal rapport with Trump, developed over years of diplomatic exchanges, is expected to play a crucial role in advancing shared priorities in defense, trade, and energy.

File Photo: India’s PM Modi with Donald Trump

Modi’s anticipated visit to the White House will provide an opportunity to align India-U.S. relations with the broader goals of regional security and economic growth. Platforms like the G20 and Quad will serve as critical avenues for high-level dialogue, enabling both nations to coordinate responses to global challenges and foster innovation in emerging technologies, renewable energy, and digital transformation.

India’s Strategic Path in a Multipolar World

Trump’s second term heralds a pivotal moment for global power dynamics, offering India a unique opportunity to solidify its role as a major global player. By leveraging its growing partnership with the U.S., India can accelerate its economic and military modernization while addressing vulnerabilities in trade and infrastructure. Strategic foresight and diplomatic resilience will be essential as India navigates the complexities of a multipolar world, balancing partnerships with major powers while safeguarding its autonomy.

This period could define India’s rise as a global leader, shaping its trajectory for decades to come. If managed effectively, India can emerge as a dominant force, driving innovation, ensuring regional stability, and securing its place at the center of global geopolitics.

-Dr. Shahid Siddiqui, follow @shahidsiddiqui on X

 

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