JEDDAH/NEW DELHI: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Saudi Arabia is more than just another diplomatic tour—it signals a deeper shift in global realignments amid the prolonged war in Ukraine. With Western military aid showing signs of fatigue, Kyiv is actively seeking alternative sources of political, financial, and strategic support, even from historically neutral or Russia-aligned powers.
Saudi Arabia, a dominant force in the Muslim world and global economy, has emerged as a key broker in wartime diplomacy. This engagement, however, raises critical questions:
-Is Ukraine strategically broadening its alliances beyond the West?
-What does Saudi Arabia stand to gain from engaging with Kyiv?
-How does this shift impact South Asian Muslim nations, which maintain deep economic, religious, and historical ties with both Saudi Arabia and Russia?
This visit is part of a broader global trend where middle powers—India, Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—are increasingly asserting diplomatic independence from traditional Western or Russian blocs.
Saudi Arabia’s Balancing Act Between East and West
Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has embraced a pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policy that allows it to leverage its influence between global power centers. This is evident in:
• Maintaining strong economic and defense ties with the U.S. and Europe while resisting pressure to align against Russia or China.
• Strengthening relations with Moscow, particularly through OPEC+ oil cooperation, which allows Riyadh to control global energy markets.
• Expanding ties with emerging economies like China and India, ensuring economic diversification beyond oil dependence.
Saudi Arabia’s neutral stance in global conflicts is a calculated approach aimed at increasing its diplomatic weight. Hosting Russia-Ukraine peace talks, negotiating prisoner exchanges, and offering economic aid without political conditions have reinforced Riyadh’s status as a credible mediator.
However, Zelensky’s visit signals Ukraine’s intent to push Saudi Arabia beyond neutrality, testing whether Riyadh would shift closer to Kyiv—something that could strain its ties with Russia.
Historical Precedents: Learning from Past Diplomatic Shifts
Saudi Arabia has long been adept at navigating global conflicts without committing too deeply. Past case studies provide insight into how Riyadh may respond:
• Saudi-China Relations (2022-Present): While traditionally allied with the U.S., Riyadh expanded its economic and strategic ties with Beijing, hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2022. However, Saudi Arabia never formally distanced itself from Washington, illustrating its ability to engage without alienating key partners.
• Saudi-Iran Rapprochement (2023): Riyadh normalized relations with Tehran through Chinese mediation, showing its intent to be a regional stabilizer rather than a partisan actor in conflicts.
• Saudi-Russia Energy Collaboration (2016-Present): The Kingdom’s strategic oil production agreements with Moscow through OPEC+ demonstrate its commitment to economic pragmatism over geopolitical pressures.
Given this history, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will fully embrace Ukraine’s position—instead, it may offer symbolic diplomatic support while ensuring its strategic partnership with Russia remains intact.
Implications for South Asian Muslim Nations
1. Pakistan: Navigating Between Riyadh, Moscow, and the West
Pakistan has historically maintained military ties with Ukraine, particularly in defense procurement. However, its economic and energy dependence on Saudi Arabia and China places it in a delicate position.
• Defense Dilemma: Russia has accused Pakistan of supplying artillery shells to Ukraine. If Saudi Arabia leans further towards Kyiv, Islamabad may face pressure to expand military aid, straining its already sensitive relations with Moscow.
• Economic Consequences: Over 2.5 million Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia, sending billions in remittances annually. Any shift in Saudi geopolitical alliances that affects labor policies or economic stability could have direct consequences for Pakistan’s economy.
2. India: Walking a Fine Line Between Energy and Diplomacy
India has adopted a calibrated neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, balancing its relationships with Russia (for discounted oil) and the West (for defense and trade partnerships). Saudi Arabia’s evolving position presents new challenges:
• Energy Security Risks: India imports oil from both Russia and Saudi Arabia. If Riyadh aligns closer to Ukraine, it could affect global oil pricing and force New Delhi to reassess its energy procurement strategy.
• Strategic Influence: India’s growing defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia could be impacted if Riyadh shifts its geopolitical stance, particularly under Western pressure.
3. Bangladesh & Afghanistan: Watching Saudi Arabia’s Next Move
• Bangladesh, which relies on Saudi Arabia for trade, labor exports, and energy, will likely monitor Riyadh’s posture closely before making any policy adjustments.
• Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government, which seeks Saudi diplomatic recognition and economic aid, may be wary of any Saudi alignment that strengthens Western influence in the region.
Geopolitical Risks & Future Implications
Zelensky’s visit highlights Kyiv’s pursuit of new diplomatic backers, but Saudi Arabia is unlikely to fully align with Ukraine at the cost of Russia and China. Instead, Riyadh will maintain its neutral mediator role, leveraging its diplomatic flexibility to gain economic and strategic advantages.
For South Asian Muslim-majority nations, this shift underscores the need for adaptable foreign policies. Countries like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will have to carefully navigate Saudi Arabia’s evolving alliances to safeguard their economic, labor, and geopolitical interests.
Beyond the Battlefield: A War for Global Influence
The Ukraine war has transcended traditional battlefields—it is now a contest for influence in emerging global power centers. As South Asian nations remain politically and economically linked to both Saudi Arabia and Russia, their ability to maneuver through changing alliances will determine their long-term geopolitical stability.
While Zelensky’s visit may not immediately alter Saudi foreign policy, it signals a broader shift in global diplomacy where non-Western powers, including Saudi Arabia, India, and China, are increasingly reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
How Riyadh manages its relationship with Kyiv will not only influence the Middle East’s role in global politics but also impact economic and security policies from South Asia to Europe and beyond.
– Dr. Shahid Siddiqui; Follow via X @shahidsiddiqui
