NEW DELHI: The April 23 terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley, Kashmir—where 26 civilians, including 25 Indian nationals and one Nepali tourist, were killed- marks the deadliest strike on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, which claimed 166 lives. The latest assault, carried out by a group calling itself “Kashmir Resistance,” has not only reignited the volatile India-Pakistan conflict but also exposed deep geopolitical vulnerabilities in South Asia. Its reverberations are already being felt in India’s domestic politics, especially in the upcoming Bihar state elections, and across the broader Global South.
Diplomatic Collapse and Strategic Posturing
India’s response was immediate and sweeping. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, the closure of the Wagah-Attari border, revocation of regional South Asian visas for Pakistani nationals, and the downsizing of India’s diplomatic mission in Islamabad. Pakistan’s defence advisors were declared persona non grata, and all cross-border travel was blocked.
“India will be unrelenting in the pursuit of those who have committed acts of terror or conspired to make them possible,” Misri said.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and long viewed as a rare example of successful conflict management, had survived the 1965 and 1971 wars as well as the 1999 Kargil conflict. Suspending it now places Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower—already stressed by climate change—under existential threat.
According to the 2022 UNDP report, over 60% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on water from rivers that flow from Indian-administered Kashmir. Per capita water availability in Pakistan has already plunged from 5,600 cubic meters in 1951 to under 1,000 today.
Kashmir Resistance: Proxy Militancy with Strategic Intent
The group that claimed responsibility, Kashmir Resistance, cited demographic changes in the valley as its primary grievance—referring to New Delhi’s post-2019 settlement policy aimed at integrating Kashmir more fully into the Indian Union. This echoes concerns raised by political figures such as Omar Abdullah, who warned in 2020 that the abrogation of Article 370 would lead to long-term instability and radicalization.
Security analysts, including Indian intelligence agencies, believe the group is a front for banned Pakistan-based terrorist organizations Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen.
Former RAW official Vikram Sood noted, “This marks a transition from cross-border infiltration to asymmetric targeting of economic and civilian life. It’s a change in both tactic and messaging.”
Mehbooba Mufti, former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister, voiced local anguish: “Kashmir is ashamed. We stand with the victims’ families. This is an attack on our very livelihood.”
Economic Fallout: Tourism and Livelihoods in Crisis
Tourism in Kashmir, a key pillar of its fragile post-insurgency economy, has suffered a critical blow. Over 18 million tourists visited the region in 2023, and the first quarter of 2024 was on track to break that record. For context, tourism contributes nearly 7% to Jammu and Kashmir’s GDP, as per a 2023 report from the Ministry of Tourism.
Local protests erupted under banners reading “Tourists are our lives” and “Stop killing innocents.” Airlines ran emergency flights out of Srinagar as visitors fled. Hotels, houseboats, transport services, and shops closed in mourning, affecting over 250,000 people directly employed in tourism.
“We had just recovered from COVID and previous disruptions,” said Abdul Wahid, a hotel manager in Pahalgam. “Now, we face bankruptcy again.”
Bihar Elections: National Security as Electoral Currency
While no general election is imminent, the state of Bihar is due for elections later this year, and the BJP is likely to leverage this tragedy to reinforce its national security credentials. Bihar has often swung toward nationalism-heavy narratives, and this incident offers the ruling party a potent message.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development narrative in Kashmir—emphasizing peace, infrastructure, and tourism—was a key talking point. The attack now allows BJP leaders to pivot toward a tougher, securitized stance likely to resonate with Bihar’s electorate, where over 40% of the population lives in poverty and nationalistic appeals carry emotional weight.
This would not be unprecedented: in the 2019 general elections, the Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot airstrikes were central to the BJP’s national security campaign. Similarly, in 2017, Yogi Adityanath’s campaign in Uttar Pradesh invoked cross-border threats to justify law-and-order policies.
Opposition leaders, meanwhile, have warned against politicizing the tragedy. “Let us not use the blood of innocents to gain votes,” said Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
Global South and Strategic Isolation
The diplomatic fallout is not limited to India and Pakistan. South Asia, already one of the least economically integrated regions in the world—with intra-regional trade accounting for under 5%—is poised to slide further into fragmentation.
Pakistan’s options are narrowing. With Gulf states and China largely silent and Western powers preoccupied with Ukraine and Gaza, Islamabad is left to navigate growing isolation. Analysts at PILDAT noted that “Pakistan’s diminishing leverage is compounded by its internal economic crisis and waning interest in Kashmir from allies.”
India’s suspension of the Indus Treaty has alarmed climate and water experts globally. It presents a precedent that multilateral frameworks may no longer be resilient to bilateral escalation. In the Global South—where water-sharing arrangements in Africa, Latin America, and Central Asia are common—this raises red flags.
Prof. Adelina Souza of the University of Cape Town said, “There is growing fatigue in the Global South about the repeated India-Pakistan crises. These conflicts sap attention and resources from development goals and South-South cooperation.”
A Path Forward—or a Return to Hostility?
This latest tragedy underscores an uncomfortable truth: without structured political engagement and conflict resolution, South Asia risks being trapped in a perpetual cycle of retaliation and regression.
India’s hardline response may play well domestically—especially with Bihar’s polls approaching—but unless paired with a long-term diplomatic framework, the costs could be enormous.
The Global South must collectively ask: Can bilateral antagonisms be allowed to undermine regional progress? And what role can emerging powers play in preventing escalation before it spirals into crisis?
Kashmir remains a test case—not only of Indian federalism or Indo-Pak diplomacy—but of the Global South’s ability to confront legacy conflicts with vision and restraint.
Importantly, Muslim communities across India and in Kashmir have strongly condemned the attack. Religious leaders and civil society representatives issued joint appeals calling the violence “un-Islamic and politically manipulative.” Many have urged political parties not to exploit the tragedy for electoral gain, emphasizing that the targeting of innocents violates both faith and humanity.
In a unified message from Srinagar to Patna, the resounding call remains: Justice, not revenge. Peace, not polarization.
– Dr. Shahid Siddiqui; Follow via X @shahidsiddiqui
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